# Long-only Carry-Aware structural diagnostic

Public summary of a checked-in historical research report. Not live P&L, not an audit, and not trading approval. No new research was run for this registry.

## Provenance

Reference source revision: eb1ce1e7977e7911425769d1099946e37b1ec65a

Report: longonly-walkforward-2026-10-25.md

Original report SHA-256: 3cb44f8bf75458519564ab20ff9e1b7b32b9f6a450f239c663b37e2bb46ffaf1

This is a curated public summary, not the raw internal report or an exact reproduction. Internal implementation and operational details are deliberately omitted.

## Period and universe

2024-12-06 → 2026-10-20 UTC end-exclusive; 683 common daily bars

BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE

## Cost assumptions

$10,000 initial capital; 11.5 bps per side (4.5 taker + 5 builder + 2 slippage); 1.0× gross baseline. 14/18 bps stress and 0.5× gross sensitivity.

Funding was loaded as exact contiguous hourly observations for funding-dependent candidates; original Velocity Ranker screens book no funding by design. No maker-fill assumption.

## Reported result and verdict

Train +4.94%, validation +1.90%. Contaminated final 2026-05-01 → 2026-10-20: +25.74%, max drawdown −13.48%, 23 completed closes. HYPE contributed 92% of net P&L. Coin/quarter concentration failed; close-count gate inconclusive.

Verdict: **NO PASS**.

## Evidence limits

No independent OOS: final overlaps previously evaluated 2026-07-19 → 2026-10-18. Train/validation reuse Round 2 dates on a different universe. All six cost/gross scenarios were positive (+11.91% to +25.74%) but confer no approval. Same-close fills remain optimistic. HYPE listing history limited the common sample to 683 days.

All figures are historical report receipts. Code tests do not validate strategy performance. No strategy is described as profitable or Live-ready.